Fire RileTier 1
at RiRiCO 店冠賽
decks
10
(45.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
54
28-24-2
overall winrate
53.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1284
· range 1135–1694
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1240
Q3 1358
1694
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.8% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 13.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 35.7% | -7.7 |
| Water Neos | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.8% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +4.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -3.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 15 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Staggering Strike, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Vanish from Sight. Losers more often ran: Luxera's Map, Unyielding Wraithguard, Blinding Orb.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Vanish from Sight
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Thieving Cut
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 6.
Luxera's Map
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Unyielding Wraithguard
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Blinding Orb
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Scorched Conquest
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 11.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 4.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 130 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 110 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxera's Map | -0.27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.27 | 8 | 4 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.27 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.27 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scorched Conquest | -0.27 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 4 | 1 | 8 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.13 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.13 | 7 | 5 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.07 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +0.07 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Storm Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Limitless Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Silvie, Slime Sovereign | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astral Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiled Oracle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |